Now that there is some production history, has anyone been following wells to indicate a first year rate of decline. I don't want company guesses or only the anomalous wells. I was wondering what an overall average decline rate might be. I guess I could do it on Sonris (very time consuming), but was wondering if anyone has already done it. Just curious.

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The rock quality varies across the entire extent of the Play.  Advances in technology will improve all wells to varying extents.  The most recent technical advance that I found of interest was the ability to measure production by perf cluster.  Surprisingly a number of tested wells exhibited production through only approximately 50% of perfs.  I imagine that any improvement in production per cluster would have a significant impact on EUR.  I suspect that a good many wells will be estimated at +10bcf within the next few years.
I've been watching this well since in first started producing. My M-I-L has 20 acres nearby. You will notice they never overproduced the well. It's flowing tubing pressure has held up very well. I hope they aren't going to start trying to increase gas flow by pulling it harder. I think this may turn out to be one of the better wells in the area. I keep thinking its performance will encourage Petrohawk or someone to drill more wells nearby and lease dear MIL's land. 
Bad information. December production only 168164 Mcf. Still a good well.
Thanks Skip; always interested to hear about things that might help push up the EUR and solve problems with the lower-producing wells!
If you go out to the BG Group company site they have a decline curve imbedded in there presentation dated February 8, 2011.  http://www.bg-group.com/InvestorRelations/Results/Documents/2010/BG...  - Go to page 55 of the presentation, it reflects a decline curve for their Haynesville production.  Hope this helps.
Web site seems to not be up...  Can you post the presentation?

Reservior engineers call shale play declines "power law" declines. Extremely steep during the initial phase where the gas produced is that of gas in the fractures. Then once that is depleted, the exposed surfaces of the fractures deabsorb the gas at a slower but steady rate, thus the decline 'curve' turns the corner very quickly so to speak.  If it turns the corner at very low rates it may still produce for 40 years but the NPV (net present value) of such production is nigh zero.

There is also something we observed in the Fayetteville...namely, the fractures may interconnect and we have places where the initial well has the highest IP and EUR but each succeeding well appears to have already been partially depleted... in other words, one wll could produce most of the gas from all the wells

In Arkansas the B-43 rules allow for 16 wells per section. IMHO, they will need no more than 8 full cross section wells to deplete the wells. IF true, then McClendon's estimate of 30 BCF of gas per unit is likely much closer to 12 - 15 BCF.. The Haynesville should produce more gas than that however.  Both the (original) Barnett and the Fayetteville are marginally profitable at current prices.

 

BG Group Presentation

 

Try this - this is a copy righted presentation and would prefer for you to get directly from their site.  Takes  a while to load it has asome 90 pages.  The decline curve is on page 55.

Hi John,

For some reason, those web addresses are not resolving on my machine at present.  I have no idea whether it is a DNS server issue with comcast or what (I am out in Washington State).  Guess I'll check later.

 Oops, never mind.  Must be an IE setting; I got to it with FireFox. - Thanks

I have attached a screen shot of the first year of production with a chart for the Petrohawk Grayson 24H1 well (serial #239789).  This is from a sheet of my royalty calculator I created with OpenOffice spreadsheet.

 

Barry Green

OurGoldenMeadows.com

Two year decline curve of the Land & Knowles 18H #1 in S18-T14N-R14W .

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