Now that there is some production history, has anyone been following wells to indicate a first year rate of decline. I don't want company guesses or only the anomalous wells. I was wondering what an overall average decline rate might be. I guess I could do it on Sonris (very time consuming), but was wondering if anyone has already done it. Just curious.
Reservior engineers call shale play declines "power law" declines. Extremely steep during the initial phase where the gas produced is that of gas in the fractures. Then once that is depleted, the exposed surfaces of the fractures deabsorb the gas at a slower but steady rate, thus the decline 'curve' turns the corner very quickly so to speak. If it turns the corner at very low rates it may still produce for 40 years but the NPV (net present value) of such production is nigh zero.
There is also something we observed in the Fayetteville...namely, the fractures may interconnect and we have places where the initial well has the highest IP and EUR but each succeeding well appears to have already been partially depleted... in other words, one wll could produce most of the gas from all the wells
In Arkansas the B-43 rules allow for 16 wells per section. IMHO, they will need no more than 8 full cross section wells to deplete the wells. IF true, then McClendon's estimate of 30 BCF of gas per unit is likely much closer to 12 - 15 BCF.. The Haynesville should produce more gas than that however. Both the (original) Barnett and the Fayetteville are marginally profitable at current prices.
Try this - this is a copy righted presentation and would prefer for you to get directly from their site. Takes a while to load it has asome 90 pages. The decline curve is on page 55.
For some reason, those web addresses are not resolving on my machine at present. I have no idea whether it is a DNS server issue with comcast or what (I am out in Washington State). Guess I'll check later.Oops, never mind. Must be an IE setting; I got to it with FireFox. - Thanks