Is 80% a normal drop rate regarding well production with all horizontal wells and if not, what is the normal drop expected rate and how long does a typical well produce? An 80% drop rate the first year hardly seems like it would be worth the cost of the drilling and fracing.
George, 80% decline in the 1st year is about normal for wells produced in the traditional manner. For wells produced on a restricted choke (~ 14/64") a 50% decline in the 1st year may be more typical.
Economics are based gas recovered over the life of the well (~ 6.5 Bcf) and justify the investment made by the operator.
George, you can find a number of discussions on decline in the archives. This subject came up early in the play and has been discussed numerous times over two plus years. This is a cut and paste from one of the early ones. Haynesville Shale wells produce huge quantities of nat gas. If they decline to a point of production that is not economic in 12 to 15 years, the average well will have produced somewhere in the range of 6 to 10 bcf. That's ~ 50 to 80 bcf per square mile section. Many operators are now producing their wells on restricted choke setting that reduce the rate of decline.
Decline By Year:
1- Barnett - 56% HS - 81%
2 - " - 27% " - 34%
3 - " - 18% " - 22%
4 - " - 12% " - 17%
5 - " - 8% " - 13%
Is there any information about the Fayetteville play regarding what I can expect from a well, both in the decline rate and the average well production over the life of the well?
Thanks for the information
George, the Fayetteville Shale play is sufficiently mature to have reliable data in regard to decline and EUR. I'm not familiar with the answer to your questions as I do not follow that play. Southwestern Energy was an early mover and remains one of the main operators in the Fayetteville. I suggest that you look through their news releases and presentations.