WASHINGTON, Aug. 26 (UPI) -- A drilling productivity report from the United States finds the Utica shale basin in Ohio is the only one of seven reviewed that's expecting more production.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration finds production from seven shale basins in the United States reached 45.6 billion cubic feet per day in May for an all-time high. That's expected to drop 1.5 percent by September.

The report finds net natural gas production from new wells drilled into U.S. shale reserves is not enough to counter the expected decline from legacy wells. EIA attributed that phenomenon to the decline in the number of drilling rigs deployed across the country.

"Given the substantial drop in rig counts since the fourth quarter of 2014 in each of the [shale] regions and growing declines in production from legacy wells, productivity increases are less able to completely offset lower rig counts and legacy-well declines," EIA said.

Of the seven basins reviewed in the latest drilling productivity report, EIA finds only the Utica shale basin in Ohio is expected to post an increase in short-term production. Production from new wells drilled into the Utica shale is estimated to rise by 7 percent from September last year, offsetting the declines expected from legacy production.

Last year, it was an increase in rig activity in the Utica shale that accounted for its resiliency.

In its market report for June, EIA found similar expected trends for U.S. crude oil production. Total oil production in July was down 100,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Net growth in U.S. crude oil production doesn't return until the middle of next year.

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I would find greater encouragement in the reported decline in NG production based on rig counts if the fracklog had been included in the analysis.  In the LA portion of the Haynesville Shale Basin alone there are 148 wells Waiting On Completion.  I suspect that is a small fraction of similar status wells nationwide.

http://dnr.louisiana.gov/assets/OC/haynesville_shale/haynesville_mo...

How has that trended in the Haynesville over the last 6-12 months?

Slightly lower.  The high to date was 187 in March.

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