U.S. Reduces Estimate for Marcellus Shale Formation Gas Reserves by 66%


From our good friends at Bloomberg News.  Now it seems that there's a good bit less shale gas in the ground, not only in the Marcellus, but also in the U.S. (in general).  Better stats; better clarity on possible reserves.

U.S. Reduces Estimate for Marcellus Shale Formation Gas Reserves by 66%

By Christine Buurma - Jan 23, 2012 9:04 AM PT

About 141 trillion cubic feet of gas can be recovered from the Marcellus shale using current technology, down from the previous estimate of 410 trillion, the department said today in its Annual Energy Outlook. About 482 trillion cubic feet can be produced from shale basins across the U.S., down 42 percent from 827 trillion in last year’s outlook.

“Drilling in the Marcellus accelerated rapidly in 2010 and 2011, so that there is far more information available today than a year ago,” the department said. The estimates represent unproved technically recoverable gas. The daily rate of Marcellus production doubled during 2011.

The estimated Marcellus reserves would meet U.S. gas demand for about six years, using 2010 consumption data, according to the Energy Department, down from 17 years in the previous outlook.

The Marcellus Shale is a rock formation stretching across the U.S. Northeast, including Pennsylvania and New York. Shale producers use a technique known as hydraulic fracturing, which involves pumping water, sand and chemicals underground to extract gas embedded in the rock.

Geological Data

The U.S. Geological Survey said in August that it would reduce its estimate of undiscovered Marcellus Shale natural gas by as much as 80 percent after an updated assessment by government geologists.

Shale gas will probably account for 49 percent of total U.S. dry gas production in 2035, up from 23 percent in 2010, the Energy Department said today.

Gas’s share of electric power generation will increase to 27 percent in 2035 from 24 percent in 2010, the report showed.

The department also said the U.S. may become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas in 2016 and a net exporter of natural gas in 2021. U.S. LNG exports may start with a capacity of 1.1 billion cubic feet a day in 2016 and increase by an additional 1.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2019, the department said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Buurma in New York at cbuurma1@bloomberg.net;

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net


ttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-23/u-s-reduces-marcellus-shale-gas-reserve-estimate-by-66-on-revised-data.html

Tags: Department, Energy, Marcellus, NG, U.S., reserves

Views: 1034

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Parkdota on January 23, 2012 at 7:33

Wow....more good news for HA royalty owners.  Thanks for post. 

Permalink Reply by The Shadow on January 23, 2012 at 21:14

I hope the estimates above are completely wrong, and instead I hope there is four (4) times more shale gas than previously reported.  I too realize that a lower estimate would probably mean better gas prices for the Haynesville Shale gas, but I would rather see gas production all over the United States that would eventually help this country cut its dependence on imported oil, create many more jobs in our country and help many families to live a better life.  My wish is to see Shale Gas benefit me, my entire family and many other families through out this country.  There is much at stake here with the discovery and developement of Shale Gas in this country, and the more the better.  I hope the best to all who have land with potential production.    

Permalink Reply by JHH on January 23, 2012 at 14:38

I don't have much confidence in the government's estimates.  but i guess it's all we have.  Has anyone heard anything new on the Haynesville estimates?

Permalink Reply by Anna Mauck-Member Services on January 24, 2012 at 3:41

I agree Shadow. What's best for the nation is what's best for us all. We are blessed by the Lord with this amazing resource - may our county keep moving in the direction of using it to it's fullest potential! 

Permalink Reply by Terry L. Antee on January 24, 2012 at 4:28

It's the government and who are they working for at this moment and what is their agenda. Green energy and at what price did the study use to estimate the recoverable gas let gas get to $14 and mcf and see how much we have then and what inovations will let us recover more gas. I don't trust a government study.  Ask your self when have they been right about anything.

Permalink Reply by JHH on January 24, 2012 at 4:37

Well said.

Permalink Reply by Antiqued Rose on January 24, 2012 at 5:42
The government and many types of companies are knotted up. So info from the gov't AND companies can be agenda PR produced by the companies (Wall Street anyone?) and politicians, both parties.
it's getting to trust what's written or said, even from what used to be trusted sources.
You and I get to bail out and assist everybody.
Permalink Reply by Matt Hall on January 24, 2012 at 6:43

"The US department of energy" enough said! With the above article I would assume there is a hidden agenda, give it a few months for some light to be shed on it. Just look at the Keystone pipeline vs. Burlington RR. Just sayin...

Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 24, 2012 at 7:25

I told you so.   The "drop" in prices of NG was unnatural ...I suspected that it had been engineered...actually tho I never would have thought it was the USDE cooking the books to make it look like a flood of NG surplus.

But then who would have ever thought they would "detain" a US elected rep for 3 hours with TSA?  I would ..happened to me..not 3 hours but long enough for me to stop flying except in dire emergencies.

So...is there an abundance of NG down there? 

We truly live in an amazing country...where a third rate actor turns out to be the most admired Rep leader in modern times in terms of presidents.  Who knew?

so now tell me..who knows what is really going on?  Is the Keystone going to be the stone that tilted the election? 

What are the down sides to the pipeline?  Of course I see none.. I want that oil to flow to refineries in Texas and Louisiana.

I will have a barf bag nearby  but as Patton said  about Rommel..."I read your book you sob"  So I figure I will listen to the swill tonight and try to figure if anybody goes for any of it.

Does anybody else remember when we had hundreds of Iranians in Wichita Falls and Amarillo being trained to fly helicopters?  

Permalink Reply by Lerret on January 26, 2012 at 12:50

 

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/08/09/quicksilver-...

 

Chesapeake declined comment and Exxon Denied it... There are a whole bunch of folk who need to explain their estimates... they are just like Berman stated....rather, overstated.

 

http://www.arcticgas.gov/federal-panel-recommends-new-rules-for-gas...

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/10/quicksilver-subpoena-idUS...

 

Overstating reserves has a very bad consequence for royalty owners... it means lower prices....much lower prices. If overstated by 100% (which is what some think...including myself) then the glut of gas would be short term although the abundance of gas associated with oil plays is adding to the crunch.

Look for the Barnett, Haynesville, and Fayetteville as well as Marcellus go into low slow go mode....few rigs running.

 

 

 

Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on January 26, 2012 at 13:03

Very old news.  What if anything came of it?

Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 26, 2012 at 18:22

Thanks for posting this - SEC investigations take a long time - that's why it seems like old news.  Plus, it's been awhile since Berman (sp?) and the NY Times did their articles on the issue.

.

I know that shale is new and estimates are still guesstimates.  So, I personally will cut them some slack ... but the SEC will not.  It's misstatement of assets and not cool in an SEC filing.  But, I think a good case can be made for over optimism rather than deliberate deception (at least in the cases I am somewhat aware of like CHK)

.

of course, the more shale there is the happier I am!  I want every nation in the world that is under the thumb of an energy cartel to be able to have a chance for their own future.  The more shalers the merrier as far as I am concerned :)

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